車を運転しないので、車には興味もない私だが、先般、講談社ビーシー発行の『ベストカー』誌の記者から、電話でのインタビュー依頼があり、それを受けた。「徹底研究 限界はどこにある!?」と題する記事の一部分とするために、100 m 走記録の限界について聞かせて欲しいということだった。私の英文ブログサイトの一つ IDEA & ISAAC: Femto-Essays に "World Records for Men's 100 m Defy Simple Curve Fitting" という記事（2008 年 8 月 20 日付け）を書き、それが "Wired Science" のブログ記事に引用されて以来、諸メディアから同様な取材を何度も受ける羽目になった。
電話インタビューでは、おおよそ次のような説明をした。私の使った経験式作成（曲線当てはめ）の方法は、ボルト選手が 2008 年に 9.69 秒の記録を出す以前の歴代世界記録データセット、それに 9.69 秒を加えたデータセット、さらに、彼の 2009 年の記録 9.58 秒を加えたデータセットへの当てはめでは、限界値がそれぞれ大幅に異なった（詳細はこちら参照）ので、むしろ、信頼出来ないということになる。無理に限界値をいって欲しいというのであれば、(9.09±0.49) 秒と、大きな誤差がつく。すなわち、予測限界値は 8.60 秒〜9.58 秒で、今後記録が伸びない可能性も含んでいる。
しかし、刷り上がった記事「身体能力の限界」（8 月 10 日号、pp. 52–62 の、車の燃費、乗り心地、ほか 14 項目についての限界特集最終ページ下の囲み記事）を見ると、見出しに「100 m 走 8 秒台は？」の行がある。そして、私の誤差についての発言を取り上げてはいるものの、「ということはマイナス方向の誤差だった場合、夢の 8 秒台に突入する 8.6 秒なんて驚異的なタイムが生まれるということだ」などと書いてある。このことは、メディアの記事を読むには、記者の興味や主観で力点が大きく変えられてしまっている場合が多いことをぜひ念頭におく必要がある、という教訓になる。
Because I do not drive a car, I am not interested in cars. However, I recently got a request of a telephone interview from a reporter of the "Best Car" magazine published by Kodansha BC Ltd. and accepted it. The purpose of the interview was to hear my opinion about the limit to the record of men's 100 m dash in order to include it in a featured article entitled "What are limitations?" I have been asked a similar question many times from various media after my blog post, "World records for men's 100 m defy simple curve fitting" ("IDEA & ISAAC Femto-Essays," 20 August 2008), was quoted by a blog post of "Wired Science."
In the telephone interview, I spoke roughly as follows: The method I used in evaluating the trend of records of 100 m dash was that of formulating empirical equations (curve fitting). The limiting values I got by using the data set of world records before Usain Bolt's 9.69 seconds in 2008, the data set including the 9.69-second record and the data set including also the 9.58-second record in 2009 were much different from each other (see here for details). This means that the method I used is quite unreliable in predicting the limiting value. If you want to hear the limiting value in spite of this, I have to say that it is 9.09 seconds with a large error of ±0.49 seconds. Namely, the predicted limiting value lies between 8.60 seconds to 9.58 seconds and includes a possibility that the record would not be improved in the future.
However, the small report of the title "The limit of man's physical ability" at the end of the featured article, which spans pages from 52 to 62 in the August-10 issue of "Best Car" and treats about the limits of 14 items of fuel economy of the car etc.) has a title line, "Is the record of 8 seconds region possible for 100 m?" It includes my remark about the error but, to my surprise, writes, "When we take the error in the minus side, it means that a wonderful record of 8.6 seconds in the dreamy region of 8 seconds would be reached." This teaches us that we should read media articles with the following fact in mind: the emphasis is often changed considerably by the reporter's interests and subjective thoughts.
電話インタビューでは、おおよそ次のような説明をした。私の使った経験式作成（曲線当てはめ）の方法は、ボルト選手が 2008 年に 9.69 秒の記録を出す以前の歴代世界記録データセット、それに 9.69 秒を加えたデータセット、さらに、彼の 2009 年の記録 9.58 秒を加えたデータセットへの当てはめでは、限界値がそれぞれ大幅に異なった（詳細はこちら参照）ので、むしろ、信頼出来ないということになる。無理に限界値をいって欲しいというのであれば、(9.09±0.49) 秒と、大きな誤差がつく。すなわち、予測限界値は 8.60 秒〜9.58 秒で、今後記録が伸びない可能性も含んでいる。
しかし、刷り上がった記事「身体能力の限界」（8 月 10 日号、pp. 52–62 の、車の燃費、乗り心地、ほか 14 項目についての限界特集最終ページ下の囲み記事）を見ると、見出しに「100 m 走 8 秒台は？」の行がある。そして、私の誤差についての発言を取り上げてはいるものの、「ということはマイナス方向の誤差だった場合、夢の 8 秒台に突入する 8.6 秒なんて驚異的なタイムが生まれるということだ」などと書いてある。このことは、メディアの記事を読むには、記者の興味や主観で力点が大きく変えられてしまっている場合が多いことをぜひ念頭におく必要がある、という教訓になる。
Because I do not drive a car, I am not interested in cars. However, I recently got a request of a telephone interview from a reporter of the "Best Car" magazine published by Kodansha BC Ltd. and accepted it. The purpose of the interview was to hear my opinion about the limit to the record of men's 100 m dash in order to include it in a featured article entitled "What are limitations?" I have been asked a similar question many times from various media after my blog post, "World records for men's 100 m defy simple curve fitting" ("IDEA & ISAAC Femto-Essays," 20 August 2008), was quoted by a blog post of "Wired Science."
In the telephone interview, I spoke roughly as follows: The method I used in evaluating the trend of records of 100 m dash was that of formulating empirical equations (curve fitting). The limiting values I got by using the data set of world records before Usain Bolt's 9.69 seconds in 2008, the data set including the 9.69-second record and the data set including also the 9.58-second record in 2009 were much different from each other (see here for details). This means that the method I used is quite unreliable in predicting the limiting value. If you want to hear the limiting value in spite of this, I have to say that it is 9.09 seconds with a large error of ±0.49 seconds. Namely, the predicted limiting value lies between 8.60 seconds to 9.58 seconds and includes a possibility that the record would not be improved in the future.
However, the small report of the title "The limit of man's physical ability" at the end of the featured article, which spans pages from 52 to 62 in the August-10 issue of "Best Car" and treats about the limits of 14 items of fuel economy of the car etc.) has a title line, "Is the record of 8 seconds region possible for 100 m?" It includes my remark about the error but, to my surprise, writes, "When we take the error in the minus side, it means that a wonderful record of 8.6 seconds in the dreamy region of 8 seconds would be reached." This teaches us that we should read media articles with the following fact in mind: the emphasis is often changed considerably by the reporter's interests and subjective thoughts.
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